The downstream purchasing demand is scattered, and the consumption performance drags down SHFE lead to fluctuate rangebound. [Brief comment on lead futures]

SMM, July 14, 2025

The most-traded SHFE lead 2508 contract opened at 17,075 yuan/mt today, briefly touching a low of 17,020 yuan/mt in the early session. It oscillated around the 17,050 yuan/mt level throughout the day and ended slightly higher in the late session, closing at 17,085 yuan/mt, up 0.06%, with an open interest of 52,444. The anticipated peak consumption season for lead has yet to materialize. During the day, downstream enterprises had scattered purchasing needs, with a preference for purchasing cargoes self-picked up from smelters. Some downstream enterprises also exhibited a strong wait-and-see sentiment, purchasing cautiously and sparingly. In terms of supply, the supply of primary lead and secondary lead increased slowly in July. As the SHFE lead 2507 contract approached delivery, the spread between futures and spot prices widened, coupled with a decline in downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Suppliers' delivery and warehouse transfers drove an increase in social inventory of lead ingots, and the revelation of unreported inventory may further drag down lead prices. However, at the same time, the supply contradiction in raw materials has not yet eased. The supply contradiction of domestic lead concentrates and scrap batteries remains prominent, providing strong cost support at the bottom of lead prices.
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